Appeal to Probability: Understanding, Spotting, Countering, and Avoiding
Guide For Understanding Fallacies: Part Eighteen
Introduction
The Appeal to Probability fallacy, also known as possibiliter ergo probabiliter ("possibly, therefore probably"), occurs when an argument assumes that because something is possible, it is therefore probable. This fallacy can lead to overestimations and flawed conclusions by conflating possibility with likelihood. Understanding how to identify, counter, and avoid the Appeal to Probability fallacy is essential for maintaining accurate reasoning and decision-making.
What is the Appeal to Probability Fallacy?
The Appeal to Probability fallacy occurs when an argument takes something for granted because it is possible, assuming that possibility equates to probability. This type of reasoning is flawed because it ignores the actual likelihood or statistical evidence of the event occurring. By treating possibilities as probabilities, the argument can create false assurances and mislead decision-making processes.
Examples of Appeal to Probability
Gambling:
Example: "Since it's possible to win the lottery, buying a ticket is a good investment."
Analysis: This argument assumes that the mere possibility of winning makes it probable, ignoring the extremely low odds of winning.
Health Risks:
Example: "It's possible to experience a rare side effect from this vaccine, so it's likely unsafe."
Analysis: This argument assumes that because it is possible to experience a rare side effect, it is likely, ignoring the statistical rarity and overall safety profile of the vaccine.
Technology and AI:
Example: "AI might surpass human intelligence and take over the world, so we should be very worried about it happening soon."
Analysis: This argument assumes that because it is possible for AI to surpass human intelligence, it is probable, disregarding the current state of AI development and expert opinions on its feasibility.
Financial Investments:
Example: "This startup could become the next big tech giant, so investing in it is a smart move."
Analysis: This argument assumes that because it is possible for the startup to succeed, it is probable, ignoring the high failure rate of startups and the need for thorough analysis.
How to Spot an Appeal to Probability Fallacy
Identifying an Appeal to Probability fallacy involves recognizing when an argument improperly equates possibility with probability:
Check for Probability Claims: Look for arguments that assert something is likely based solely on its possibility.
Evaluate Statistical Evidence: Determine if the argument provides statistical evidence or data to support the likelihood of the event occurring.
Assess Logical Consistency: Ensure that the argument differentiates between what is possible and what is probable.
Consider Alternative Scenarios: Think about other possible outcomes and their respective probabilities to assess the argument's validity.
How to Counter an Appeal to Probability Fallacy
When encountering an Appeal to Probability fallacy, it is important to highlight the difference between possibility and probability and demand evidence:
Point Out the Fallacy: Explain how the argument conflates possibility with probability without sufficient evidence.
Example: "Just because it's possible to win the lottery doesn't mean it's a good investment. The odds are extremely low."
Request Statistical Data: Ask for statistical evidence or probability data to support the claim.
Example: "Can you provide statistics that show how likely it is to experience a rare side effect from this vaccine?"
Highlight the Low Likelihood: Emphasize the low likelihood of the event occurring despite its possibility.
Example: "While it's possible for AI to surpass human intelligence, experts agree that it's not likely to happen soon given current technology."
Provide Counter-Evidence: Offer evidence or examples that illustrate the actual probabilities and contextualize the claim.
Example: "Most startups fail, so it's important to thoroughly research and consider the risks before investing."
How to Avoid an Appeal to Probability Fallacy
To avoid committing an Appeal to Probability fallacy, focus on distinguishing between possibility and probability and relying on evidence:
Differentiate Possibility from Probability: Clearly distinguish between what is possible and what is probable in your arguments.
Use Statistical Evidence: Support your claims with statistical data and probability evidence rather than relying on mere possibilities.
Acknowledge Uncertainty: Recognize and admit the uncertainty involved in predicting outcomes and avoid overstating the likelihood.
Promote Critical Analysis: Encourage a thorough and critical analysis of probabilities and risks rather than assuming possibilities are likely.
Conclusion
The Appeal to Probability fallacy conflates possibility with probability, leading to overestimations and flawed conclusions. By understanding how to identify, counter, and avoid this fallacy, we can promote more accurate and evidence-based reasoning. Ensuring that arguments are supported by statistical data and probability evidence helps maintain the integrity of our reasoning and contributes to more rational decision-making.